There has been much criticism for Omar Minaya this year regarding the lack of a move in getting a hitter for the depleted, injury-ravaged New York Mets lineup. With injuries to Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran, the Mets are left with only David Wright, a 40-year-old Gary Sheffield, and a bunch of “he doesn’t scare me” type of hitters.
I have been critical of Minaya in the past, primarily for his lack of building farm systems as GM of the Mets and, after he was given the GM job for the Montreal Expos, making inexcusable trades by the boatload.
Notice how many proven major leaguers Minaya has traded away, including Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Orlando Cabrera.
This piece has been in the hopper for two weeks, but after a terrible 10-game stretch where they went 2-8, it merits even more consideration. After taking three of four from the (at that time) first-place St. Louis Cardinals, the Mets were only a half game out of first place.
The Phillies had lost 14 of 18 games and were receiving terrible pitching, Raul Ibanez was injured, and Jimmy Rollins was mired in a huge slump.
The Mets were ready to make their move towards first place.
Except a little thing happened on the way to a World Series title.
The Mets remembered they had a minor league lineup surrounding David Wright, their starting pitching (outside of Johan Santana) was terrible, and their bullpen is hit or miss on any given day.
Even their most reliable bullpen arm, Frankie Rodriguez, has been inconsistent lately. Over his last seven appearances, K-Rod has allowed eight hits, five earned runs, and seven walks in 7.1 IP, and has blown two saves
Throw in shoddy defense and awful fundamental baseball, and you realize this is not a good baseball team.
Their recent bad stretch started with being swept at home versus the New York Yankees, where the combined score was 18-3. The minor league lineup was impotent, but the pitching was not good either.
That is the rub: The Mets fans want Omar Minaya to make a move for another bat to improve the lineup, but the Mets will never win if they do not get better starting pitching.
The current Met starters are Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Livan Hernandez, Fernando Nieve, and Tim Redding. That is one great pitcher, one up and down youngster, and three journeymen.
That is not the making of a postseason rotation, and even Santana has looked well...un-Santana-like lately. His last seven starts have returned a 2-5 record, 5.61 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP.
Please do not tell me about his lack of run support. The job of a starting pitcher is to win games—not to have the best WHIP or ERA or FIP, but to win games for your team. Santana has not done that consistently this year. To his credit, he has 16 decisions, but he needs to begin outdueling the other starter.
Now with Santana normalized and everybody else iffy, when are the Mets likely to put a good stretch together that gets them back into the race?
Should the Mets try and trade David Wright to the Boston Red Sox?
Is the return of Oliver Perez going to brighten everybody’s day in Metland? Definitely not.
Perez has always been a head case, and now with the guaranteed three-year, $36 million contract, he is even more so.
When is John Maine going to return? He is not yet throwing, and if he does return, will it be the usual inconsistent Maine who has that terrible inning every game?
Maine is a pitcher who does just enough to keep you thinking he is really good, but when you see the end result, it is almost never good.
Their home park is designed to be a pitcher's park, so the Mets need to design their team to fit their ballpark. Getting better, more consistent starting pitching and getting better defensively will help the Mets more than adding a big bat to a AAA lineup.
The Mets do not have a good starting rotation, and there is no real help on the horizon unless they take drastic steps to improve their team to their ballpark.
The worst thing for the Mets (and Omar) to do is panic and make a move for a bat that will not help them this season.
Eventually Reyes will be back, and likely Beltran too, but probably not Delgado. Even if all three came back next week completely healthy, the Mets rotation is still an inconsistent wreck.
The second-worst thing for the Mets is to go on an improbable little run where they win seven of 10 after the All-Star break, giving the team (and the fans) hope that they could recreate the aura of the 1973 Ya Gotta Believe team.
But that team had great pitching. This 2009 Met team does not.
The same thing happened to the Yankees last year. They went on an eight-game winning streak after the break and thought they could come back and overtake both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.
They made the big trade for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, but the Yankees were without the big bats of Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada and did not have the starting pitching to keep in the race.
The 2009 Mets should not make the same mistake the 2008 Yankees did. The Mets should make a move, but make it for pitching, and not to try to win this season, but to win in the future. Instead of trading for a bat, the Mets should trade a bat, and trade their best bat, because that will get you more value for the future.
Under Minaya’s tenure, the Mets have always played for this season and to win now. Now, it is time to change course and build for the future.
The future is with a potent rotation based upon good young arms that, while pitching half their games in spacious Citi Field, will not be afraid to throw strikes.
The Mets should pursue a trade with the Boston Red Sox that sends third baseman David Wright and Fernando Martinez to the Red Sox in exchange for CF Jacoby Ellsbury, RHP Clay Buchholz, AA 1B Lars Anderson, and any two of Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard, and Michael Bowden.
This trade does three things.
First, it improves the stable of young major league-ready arms for the Mets. Second, it gets the Mets their power hitting first baseman of the future. Third, it kills the Mets' crosstown rival New York Yankees, who see the Red Sox improve an already potent lineup with the addition of the power-hitting Wright.
Just imagine the righty-hitting David Wright in Fenway banging line drives off and hitting towering drives over the Green Monster, and doing it in a big series against the Yankees!
The Met fans will enjoy their take of the loot too, as Buchholz and Masterson/Bowden step right into the rotation, and Ellsbury provides a solid leadoff hitter and great defense.
Ellsbury at the top allows Reyes to move into the middle of the lineup, where his 190-plus hits every year will plate 120 runs, many of them scored by Jacoby.
Anderson is a big power hitter, providing necessary power for the Mets for years to come. He should be ready for the majors next year, and whoever loses the first base battle between Anderson and maybe Ike Davis, the Mets' first-round pick last season, moves to a corner outfield spot or is trade bait for more pitching.
Ellsbury is a proven major leaguer, something the Mets do not yet have in the young but talented Martinez.
F-Mart’s youth and their potent lineup allow the Red Sox to groom him slowly for center. The 20-year-old would get a few months of seasoning in AAA and would be brought back up in September.
The Mets would be wise to explore this option soon, as the Cleveland Indians have scouted the Red Sox's minor league system in anticipation of the Sox making a run at Indians catcher Victor Martinez.
The Red Sox need extra offense, and by getting the powerful Wright to play third, they can move Kevin Youkilis back to his comfortable first base, having cornerstones at first and third through the year 2013, which are club options for each player.
The Mets can fill their third base need with a free agent in the offseason for a one or two-year deal.
The future at third, however, is currently a shortstop in the Mets system. Wilmer Flores is only 18 but currently stands at 6'3" and 175 lbs. This is an Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken type of physical stature, and it will be more beneficial for him and the Mets if he switched over to third base.
Flores is very adept with the bat, and although he does not walk too much yet (only a .325 OBP at Low A), he also does not strike out much (only 38 K's in almost 300 PA).
With the big park a major factor and the lack of quality arms in their system, the Mets need to merge the two. That means trading their big bat in David Wright for some proven speed and defense (Ellsbury) and some power arms to build up their stable of pitching talent.
Combining these pitchers with 23-year-old Jonathan Niese, having a good season at Triple A, the Mets can be a force in the National League East for years and help bury the crosstown rival Yankees in the same process.
New York Yankees backup catcher Jose Molina has been on the disabled list since May 8 with a strained left quadriceps. This is a significant injury for any player, let along a catcher. When he likely returns this upcoming week against Minnesota, Molina will have missed two months.
In addition, starting catcher Jorge Posada was placed on the disabled list a few days earlier on May 5 with a strained left hamstring and he missed 24 days. Legs injuries are severely detrimental to a catcher, both in his time away and quality of play, especially with players at the advanced baseball ages of Posada (37) and Molina (34).
That is why it is important for the Yankees to keep reserve catcher Francisco Cervelli on the major league roster even after Molina returns. Most people will want to send Cervelli down for regular play at the Triple A level, but he can provide the big club an even more vital role by staying on the Bronx.
Before Molina and Posada went down with their injuries, Molina was the starting catcher in four of the prior ten games. In three of those starts, Hideki Matsui was the DH, while Posada was the DH in the fourth Molina start. In the three games Matsui was the DH, Posada pinch hit late in the game.
Both Molina and Posada both played in all four of those games, with no backup in place in case anything happened to the second catcher. Granted, Posada pinched hit late in the game, with the game usually on the line. But, if the game went extra innings and Posada was needed to catch, there is a decent chance an injury could occur.
I base this on Posada’s fragile nature and the overall physical demands of the catching position. A foul tip here, ball in the dirt hitting the wrong spot there, or maybe a play at the plate.
Posada is notoriously shy about blocking the plate, but it still needs to be done and the runner will still try and do his job of dislodging the ball form the catcher, especially that late in the game.
All those instances can wipe involve removing your catcher from the game. And who then will catch? Cody Ransom? He is versatile and physically capable, but right now he is the only Yankee backup infielder. He is needed for that role. Eric Hinske could play infield, but he was never that good defensively at third base in his career.
Most teams carry two catchers, but that is usually workable because the starting catcher play the bulk of the games, with the backup maybe getting a start per week. Based upon usage thus far this season, Molina would be spelling Posada behind the plate 40 percent of the time.
That is too much work for the backup catcher, but the Yankees need that due to a variety of reasons, including Posada’s age, recent injury history and the certain pitchers who like to throw to Molina.
In the 23 games Cervelli has appeared in this season, he has rarely looked overmatched at the plate and even hit his first Major League home run June 24 in Atlanta. That home run broke up a no-hitter in the sixth inning, and propelled the Yankees to begin a seven game winning streak.
He also has several other timely hits (two run single off of Johan Santana on June 14), is a really good defensive catcher with a strong arm and appears to have a great working relationship with the pitchers.
During his abbreviated spring training with the Yankees (abbreviated due to his participation for Italy in the WBC), Cervelli credited Molina with helping him with the major league game.
Most people within baseball would send Cervelli down to Triple A so he can “play every day” and presumably get better. When is playing every day at a lower level allowing a baseball player to “get better?”
Players get better from playing at the highest level, and learning from their mentors.
Just like when Posada was a young player and Joe Girardi took him under his wing for the 1998 and 1999 seasons (two World Series titles by the way), Molina has taken to tutoring Cervelli on the finer points of major league catching.
And Cervelli needs this mental approach more than anything as he just began catching in 2003 when the Yankees signed him as a non-drafted free agent. The Yankees felt his body type and throwing arm were best suited behind the plate.
I know this goes against the current thinking in major league baseball, but I have always been a "go against the grain" type of guy when it comes to baseball. Not much into going by the book.
For example, why do managers always go to their "eighth inning guy" out of the bullpen when the pitcher who currently in the game is pitching well? Why the need for pitch counts and innings limits? Let the kids throw the ball!
Detroit has held 20 year old pitching phenom Rick Porcello under 100 pitches in every one of his starts this season? Why? To save his arm? Spare me the hyperbole about young pitchers and throwing a baseball.
I was at one of his high school state playoff games where he threw over 150 pitches! By the way, check out who sponsors Porcello's baseball-reference page.
Anyway, when Cervelli is kept, who should then go down to Scranton? Nobody.
Veteran pitcher Brett Tomko would need to be designated for assignment (basically released), and go through waivers where he would probably be picked up from another team. Tomko is your 12th pitcher, something I never have liked having on a major league team.
Eleven pitchers (five starter, closer, five relievers) are just fine, especially when you have four of your relievers (Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves) who can pitch multiple innings.
Tomko has only been used five times since June 9 with 8 IP, allowing 8 hits, 8 ER, and 3 HR. Three times were mop up duty and twice was the game was close. Both those times he allowed big innings.
Tomko is expendable, and as I have mentioned before, he really isn't that good of a pitcher. If the Yankees need a mop-up guy, Nick Swisher is always available. He has beter number than Tomko anyway.
Go against the tide Brian Cashman and keep Cervelli around. The Yankees will be better off in the long run
In Tuesday night's 7-0 Boston Red Sox victory over the New York Yankees, Josh Beckett dominated the Yankees.
This win further extends the successful streak for the big right-hander. Over his last five starts, Beckett is 4-0 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. His only non-win was an eight inning gem against the Mets where he allowed five hits, a single free pass and zero earned runs.
Tuesday night’s start vs. the Yankees might have been even better, as Josh commanded the strike zone like a master painter. While many pitchers have control (which is throwing strikes), very few pitchers have command (which is control WITHIN the strike zone).
Although Beckett walked two (both to Mark Teixeira) in his six innings of work (91 pitches), it appeared he pitched around Tex both times to get to Alex Rodriguez. Beckett handled A-Rod both times without a sweat, getting A-Rod on a pop up and a whiff.
“Beckett is a guy who really knows what to do when he gets a lead,” said Yankees DH Johnny Damon. “He probably learned that from watching (Curt) Schilling. When he gets ahead he pounds the strike zone, he doesn't walk guys, he comes after you and makes you do something big to beat him.”
A pitching coach once said that even if you throw strikes to a .400 hitter he will still make out 60 percent of the time, but when you walk someone, the on-base percentage is usually 1.000.
Simplistic, but true. True since the times when Cy Young was throwing pitches.
As a pitcher, you can either give up hits or walk guys, BUT YOU CAN’T DO BOTH.
Current pitchers like Roy Halladay (complete game SHO on June 7), Zach Greinke and Beckett (guys who actually WIN baseball games, and don’t let their bullpens determine the outcome) "pound the strike zone" as Damon said. They control the game, and make the hitter put the ball in play.
The best pitchers throw strikes, get ahead, and get guys out. It doesn't matter if it is via a strikeout or a ball put in play.
This gets the starters deeper into games, and doesn't necessitate them relying on their bullpen (usually a bunch of scrubs) to record victories. These pitchers record most of the decisions in their starts, a key component of an effective starter.
I love (sarcasm) that new stat BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) which indicates a hitter’s batting average on times he makes contact and actually has to run hard out of the box (unless you are a New York Mets player and that running hard task is optional).
The league averages are usually a few ticks above .300. Sabermetric guys always state that if a hitter has a BABIP of under the league average he is usually “unlucky” in that his batted balls are right at a fielder, and they make the play on his batted balls.
BABIP is also a stat for pitchers. If a pitcher has a higher BABIP than league average, they are considered “unlucky” by the Sabermetric guys because the pitcher's defense might lack range and some hit balls might just find holes.
What happens if a pitcher hits the spots within the strike zone (command) where batters do not get good wood on the ball, and hit the ball off the handle or the end of the bat? Pitchers do pitch to contact as they move the ball on the inner or outer thirds of the plate.
Next time you watch Baseball Tonight on ESPN or MLB.com highlights, notice where the pitch location is off every big blast from a hitter. Almost always the pitch is in the middle of the plate. Guys like Halladay and Beckett rarely hit the middle of the plate.
And you do not have to throw hard like those pitchers to pitch effectively and win. In their long careers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux never threw really hard, but rarely threw the ball over the middle of the plate.
Last week, there were four complete game shutouts including Halladay’s gem. Cole Hamels threw one out in Los Angeles, Jeff Niemman of the Rays threw one, and even Carl Pavano tossed one during his new Carl Pavano 2009 tour comeback season.
All told, there have been 16 complete game shutouts this season. In those 16 games (that is 144 total innings) there were only 11 walks issued by those 15 pitchers (Zach Grienke has two CG SHO).
Also, those 16 games totaled 105 strikeouts, an average of 6.56 per start. The average pitches thrown were 108 per game.
While there were games like Justin Verlander’s May 8 gem with 11 K’s and 121 pitches, there was also Joel Pineiro’s May 19th game of three K’s and 93 pitches. Some were dominating performances, while several were virtuoso, pick-you-apart masterpieces.
Hitters likely felt overwhelmed facing Verlander that day, but probably had a very comfortable zero-fer against Pineiro. Whether striking out double-digit batters or allowing the hitters to put the ball in play, “pounding the strike zone,” (or just “throwing strikes”) allows a pitcher to win more games.
In Beckett’s recent game, he threw only six innings, and was pulled by manager Terry Francona with a big lead after only 93 pitches (only the second time all season Beckett has thrown less than 100). Lucky for him that the big lead, combined with a sturdy Red Sox bullpen, allowed Beckett to get win number seven.
It appears that complete game shutouts are the direct result of "pounding the strike zone" and letting your defense do their work, both of which help keep that pitch count low. In today’s game, it’s usually 100 or so and out. Those pitchers who let the bullpen in the majority of their games usually win less games for their team.
Why let the bullpen have a say in the final result of your work when a pitcher can throw more strikes, get deeper in games, and win more often for his team?
Legendary pitching coach Ray Miller (a disciple of Johnny Sain) constantly preached to his hurlers to: 1) Throw strikes. 2) Work quickly. 3) change speeds. It just goes to show that those principles still resonates as much today as they did in the past.
Scranton doesn’t have a fifth starter due to injuries (Ian Kennedy), promotions (Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves) and trades (Eric Hacker to Pittsburgh).
The current four-man rotation at Scranton includes Kei Igawa, Josh Towers, Casey Fossum, George Kontos and now Paul Bush. That is four pitchers who will never see the light of day in the Bronx.
Only Kontos, a fifth round pick in that great 2006 Yankee draft, has any chance with New York. And even if he continues to perform well at Triple A, because of the Yankee glut of young pitching, he is likely to be packaged in a trade. As a 2006 college draftee, Kontos also needs to be put on the 40-man roster by November or the Yankees risk exposing him to the Rule 5 draft this winter.
Kontos was promoted in early May and has progressed well at the higher level. Another pitcher from that 2006 class needs to be promoted to Scranton now.
That pitcher is Zach McAllister, a 21-year-old strike throwing machine who is currently dominating the Double A Eastern League. In 10 starts for the Trenton Thunder, McAllister is 5-2, 1.61 ERA, a WHIP of 1.10 and a .220 BAA (batting average against). However, in his last 5 starts, while averaging 6.2 IP per, he is 4-1, 0.79 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He has improved over the course of the season as the weather is getting better, usually a time for the hitters to thrive!
However, Mark Newman, Yankees VP of Baseball Operations, is not on board with a quick promotion. “It’s all about development," Newman said. "We’re not going to push him to Triple-A to fill a Triple-A spot before he’s ready." It looks to me like McAllister has developed very nicely at Double A and needs that push. In fact, Newman should look no further than last season for precedence in promoting McAllister quickly.
Last season McAllister made 10 starts in Low A Charleston (6-3, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .245 BAA) before being promoted to High A Tampa. After 10 starts he is more dominating this season at the Double A level, yet the Yankee brass thinks he is not ready?
This is a similar situation, in the same exact time frame from last year. There is no reason not to push him, especially with the aging garbage the Yankees have in the Triple A rotation.
I know many teams (ie: the New York Mets) like to stockpile veteran pitchers at Triple A just in case of injuries hit the big club. The Mets even had Fossum for a short while this year before releasing him. I prefer to go in a different direction, and let your top young pitchers perform at that high Triple A level, and promote them instead of a washed up relic.
There is absolutely no need for the 30-year-old Bush, 31-year-old Fossum or the 32-year-old Towers to get starts in Scranton, and don’t even get me started on the 35-year-old Jason Johnson (56-100, 4.99 ERA in career), who the Yankees signed this past winter and has made a handful of Triple A starts.
All those thirtysomething guys flat out stink and they will not be in the Yankees plans, so why have them in Triple A? I know why Igawa is still there, but the others need to be let go. In case of a rash of injuries, those holes can always be filled by other older losers. You think teams are going to jump on Josh Towers if the Yankees release him?
In fact, the Yankees should also promote the 22-year-old Ivan Nova, too, who has a 4-3, 3.12, 1.50 WHIP at Trenton. Like McAllister, Nova has gotten better as the year has progressed, averaging an out under 6 IP per, going 2-1, 1.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in his last four starts. Nova was a Rule 5 selection of the San Diego Padres off the Yankee roster, but they returned him after Nova posted a sub par Spring Training.
The Yankees have too many good, young arms they can promote another level to get the extra experience versus better hitters. While young hitters should be moved along more slowly, it is always better to promote and advance young pitching quickly. Pitchers can adjust to hitters better than the other way around.
Good young pitching is the biggest marketable commodity in baseball and it is imperative to develop them quickly. The pitcher position is always more susceptible to injury and the more quality pitchers a team has at the higher minor league levels, the better they can withstand the inevitable injuries.
In case of an injury, I would rather have a young studs like McAllister and Nova ready to move up than a Casey Fossum or Josh Towers. The Yankees have too much depth right now with six major league starters (including Phil Hughes) plus converted starter Aceves in the bullpen for the need to have 30+ year old pitchers in Triple A.
It is time to move up McAllister (and probably Nova) now, rather than later. The precedence was already set last season.