How important is momentum in the NFL Playoffs?

If momentum were that important heading into the NFL playoffs, then the Washington Redskins, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars (all road teams) should win this weekend. The Skins, Giants and Jags all looked extremely good last week, while the Titans have all the momentum (and confidence) in the world, beating the Colts, albeit against their B team.

Many people are picking the Skins, Giants and Jags to continue their winning ways. These teams very well may win, but momentum will not be the deciding factor. In fact, momentum has nothing to do with this week's outcomes. The main factor is how teams play that day, not how they played last week or the week before that. Good play the week before probably gives a team, or even individual players, extra confidence going into the next week, but does not influence directly on the final score of the next game.

Media pundits everywhere are harping on this "momentum" bandwagon. They continuously ripped the Colts coach Tony Dungy for resting his starters against the Titans, while praising the Giants' Tom Coughlin for playing his guys hard against the New England Patriots. This was quite a change as Coughlin is usually ripped by everybody and Dungy is the most respected coach in the league. But Dungy has a tendency to rest his players. Oh, my gosh!  

WFAN New York radio broadcaster Chris "Mad Dog" Russo stated this past week that he likes the Giants chances against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because they have the momentum from last week's effort over the Patriots. Hey Chris...the Giants lost. But they played well. Many Giants fans "feel good" about their chances against the Bucs because of last week's performance. Playing well during one week doesn't mean anything for the next week. I would rather win ugly, than lose a well played game.

But Eli Manning did play well against the Patriots, throwing three touchdown passes, and that might have given him enough confidence to withstand the expected onslaught from Monte Kiffin's defense. The added confidence might help the Giants but momentum has no effect.

The NFL is a what have done for me lately league. In fact, every sport has become very impatient, with football teams (and their fans) very impatient with coaches who do not win every season, and quarterbacks who do not win every game they play. If a coach sits his players (like Dungy and Gruden), and they win the playoff game, then it was a good decision. If they rest, and the team loses, then it was a bad decision.

Why? Because they "lost their momentum."

Momentum is misunderstood in sports and more often plays a role in baseball, where teams play every day, rather than football where games are played once a week. In football games, however, momentum can be gained during a particular game. This is usually done by a turnover, big offensive play or a big stop on defense.

It is better to rest football players, especially late in a grueling season. Isn't that why teams vie for the first down playoff bye? It allows teams to rest for most of the first week, while having extra time to prepare for the next opponent. This rest actually gives teams a big advantage. Since 1990, when the NFL went to the six team playoff format in each league, those teams with the extra week off are 53-15, with most of the victories by double digits. Of the 15 wins by the "Wild Card" teams, seven of those teams were division winners of their own right. Not momentum teams, but just good football teams!

When evaluating playoff teams this or any future season, remember that the teams which play better that day usually win. Last week's game or any "momentum" they have attained usually does not matter. Momentum in football is important DURING the course of a particular game, but has no bearing week to week. Just ask those 53 teams that lost in the divisional playoffs. They HAD that momentum after their first round playoff win, but were generally blown out in the next round.

 

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