Mets-Cubs in game analysis - September 25, 2008

Well, in one start Pedro is looking to make his four year contract worthwhile. Pedro must go deep into the game and possibly give the Mets 110+ pitches. As long as he is effective, Jerry Manuel must use and abuse Pedro, who WILL NOT AND SHOULD NOT be a Met next year. There is no reason why he shouldn’t be run into the ground.

Top 1st - Pedro’s pitches look sharp as his curve is breaking nicely and his fastball is 90-91 MPH, but he gives up a two out HR to rookie Micah Hoffpauir, his first career HR. A career minor leaguer, Hoffpauir did hit .362 with 25 dingers and drive in 100 runs at AAA Iowa this season. After a walk and two singles, the Cubs are now up 2-0. The RBI was by another Cubs rookie - Casey McGehee.

The Brewers can’t be happy that Piniella is not starting Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto, Alfonso Soriano or Aramis Ramirez, but the Cubbies are winning early. The Cubs lineup is not exactly Murderer’s Row.

Bottom 1st - an error by Hoffpauir allows Reyes on board and with him on third and one out, David Wright hit a sac fly. Oh, only if the sac fly was last night! I read somewhere that Met fans are beginning to call Wright D-Rod after his Arod like inability to come through when it counts.

But, when do 124 RBI’s not count?

Top 2nd - Wright makes a one out error. How many so far this year? That is Wright’s 16th error this season, an improvement over his 21 from 2007.

Top 3rd - While Pedro’s stuff looks good, he has not consistently hit the strike zone and walks the leadoff hitter, already his third walk of the game. Hoffpauir makes Pedro pay as Micah smashed a long double over Beltran’s head. Another walk by Pedro - man - throw the ball over the plate! Unless you are afraid to throw strikes because you are scared it will get hit hard.

Pedro gets out of it and Cubs lead 3-1. Already 63 pitches and only thru the third inning.

I just checked Pedro’s career record. He is 214-99. Although he struck out the side in the third inning (he benefited from a couple wide strikes), he looks scared to pitch - and this lineup is not the regulars, but mostly AAA guys up from Iowa. If Pedro can’t get out these AAA guys, he should retire. Thru 3 innings the AAA Cubs have 4 hits and four walks against Pedro.

It would a shame for him to lose his 100th career game on this very important night for the Mets.

I predict that if the Mets come back and get Pedro off the hook, Pedro will retire with his less than 100 losses. If Pedro goes on to get the loss tonight, he will try to return to pitch next season.

Bottom 3rd - Harden looks great as the Mets have only one hit thru three and that was a ball which should have been caught in LF. The run in the 1st was unearned.

Harden with only 37 pitches thru 3 innings.

Bottom 4th - Murphy hits a fly ball to left center which continued to cary to the warning track. Uncharacteristically, Murphy lunged for the ball, hitting the ball well out in front of the plate, but the ball kept carrying.

Harden walks Wright with one out and Beltran with two outs. He was clearly working around Beltran to face the struggling Ryan Church. The move fails Harden as Church rips a double past a diving Hoffpauir down the RF line, scoring both Wright and Beltran.

I can’t believe that Luis Aguayo actually sent Beltran home. LOL.

The RH Derrek Lee would have likely gotten that ball and saved two runs, but Hoffpauir has two hits (HR/2 and two RBI’s already. So everything kind of evens out. Also, he made the error in the first, causing the Cubs an unearned run. He has been very active.

Tied at 3.

On the last out, a pop fly behind short, Gary Cohen screeched into his mike that the ball could drop when Ryan Theriot seemed to misplay the ball, but Felix Pie made the easy catch. Cohen has to be the biggest homer in baseball broadcasting, next to John Sterling, of course!

They should both have a screech off contest at the end of the season.

Top 5th - Hoffpauir gets his third hit and Gary Cohen mentions that Hoffpauir had 25 homers and hit .362 at Iowa. Way ahead of you Gary!

Pedro begins to settle down and works thru the 5th without any damage. Total of 82 pitches thru 5.

Top 6th - The umpire has really big strike zone, helping Pedro along the way to his 9 strike outs. But, the Cubs hitters need to know the strike zone is larger than usual, SO THEY MUST ADJUST TO THE UMPIRE and not let him take the bat out of their hands. Just too many called third strikes.

Well, I guess that’s sabermetrics for ya…hitters looking to up Pedro’s pitch counts and look for walks instead of hitting the ball.

However, similar to form this season, Pedro has a shaky beginning but settles down and begins to pitch in cruise control.

As the game remains tied and gets late, will Lou Piniella plug in some of his regulars? Probably only pinch hitting duties.

And the rain, which started in the 3rd inning, begins to fall harder.

Bottom 6th - Harden walks Wright to start the inning. Why do these pitchers continue to do that? Go right at them. Catfish Hunter gave up a lot of HR’s, but most were of the solo variety because he said he never wanted to walk guys leading off innings.

Gary Cohen told a great story of the 1973 season, when the Mets and Cubs had to play a deciding double header after that season so first place can be determined. The Mets won the first game in the rain and clinched first place and the umpires cancelled the second game because of rain (actually it was only a mist) because the game wasn’t needed.

Can that happen again if this game remains tied and is suspended from heavier rain (as is expected)?

Harden strikes out Ramon Martinez to end the Mets 6th. Nice duel developing between Pedro and Harden.

In between inning I peeked at the Yankees game and Pavano is already out after giving up 8 hits and 5 runs in 4 innings. Although he will strike out a lot, that 20 year old Travis Snider looks like a good looking young hitter. He is hitting .344 with 2 HR’s and 12 RBI’s in only 64 ML at bats, but has almost as many strikeouts (349) as hits (362) in his young pro career.

Top 7th - Good to see Pedro back out there. But after a single, SB and a walk, the Cubs have 1st and second with none out and Pedro is being removed for Ricardo Rincon. Rincon has actually been quite effective for the Mets since arriving from the Mexican League. Looks like Rincon didn’t shy away from the guacamole and sour cream at the post game spread.

But, the first batter he faces hits along three run homer and Micah Hoffpauir has had himself a 4 for 4 day with 2 HR’s and 5 RBI’s.

Looks like Piniella got his look at Hoffpauir, so Lou might as well remove him now and put in Derrek Lee. LOL!

Cubs lead 6-3 and the merry go round of L/R pitching matchups will begin! Coming off the mound, it was a nice round of applause that Rincon received.

Pedro is now on the hook for his 100th career loss, but he did have a real nice walk off the mound complete with tons of cheers. His gestures to the fans indicated to me that his Mets career (and maybe his entire career) could be over.

Brian Stokes stops the bleeding and Mets are still only down three.

Bottom 7th - New rule this season: If the game is completed after 7 innings and the Cubs are leading, then the game is over and the Mets lose. But, if the game is called before the bottom of the 7th is over then the game would be suspended. And the rain continues to fall very hard. You can tell by all the rain drops bouncing off all the empty seats.

Runner on third with one out. If the Mets score here (and that’s a BIG IF), then Piniella has to go to Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood in the 8th and 9th innings. Play if like it counts, Lou.

The run does count and the game is 6-4 Cubs after 7 innings.

I can see Gaudin staying in to face Wright, then going a lefty to face Delgado, but why not bring in Marmol - arguably the Cubs best relief pitcher - to start the 8th, especially when he is well rested? Especially with the heart of the order coming up?

If Lou doesn’t start Marmol, then that is plain wrong.

Top 8th - Checked the Brewers/Pirates game and Yovani Gallardo is out after 4 innings. Four innings and one run (a homer) is not bad for his first start since May 1st.

Gary Cohen and “The Boys” are discussing Lou Piniella and Gary states that Lou was a “originally a Seattle Pilot,” but Piniella came up with the Indians and actually never played for the Pilots, having been traded to and traded from the Pilots before the season started.

Schoenenweis works a shaky 8th, but does not give up a run.

Bottom 8th - LHP Neil Cotts in to face RH David Wright and Piniella is not going to use his top arms out of the pen. Wright singles to left and here we go…

Just plain wrong by Piniella.

Delgado just misses the first pitch fastball by Cotts. That might have been THE pitch.

And it was as Delgado hits into a 6-5-3 double play.

But, after two straight singles by Beltran and Church, there are runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs and Piniella goers to the mound for a new pitcher in Bobby Howry. But, where is Marmol?

With the moves that Piniella is making, he is giving the Mets the playoffs, but so far the Mets have not taken the cue.

Two RBI singles by Ramon Martinez and Robinson Canel ties the game for the Mets, with a slide by Church around the catcher scoring the tying run.

Church actually could have been called out for going out of the baseline to avoid a tag, but nothing was called. The rule states a runner can not go three feet out of the baseline to avoid the tag and Church did go far around the catcher and behind home plate to avoid the tag - more than 3 feet, but an umpire would have to have some set of brass balls to make that type of call in a game like this.

Top 9th - Leadoff single and Piniella keeps with his young guys. No Ramirez or Soto or Lee pinch hitting.

Now I know why Piniella is not using his best guys, especially late in this important tie game.

PINIELLA WANTS THE METS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS and be the Wild Card. He knows his team is much better than the Mets and if the Mets get the wild card, they play the Cubs in the first round. Jon Heyman had a piece yesterday which stated that many scouts think the Mets would be an easy first round out with their terrible bullpen and lack of clutch hitting.

Heyman had a quote, “I hope we play the Mets,” one NL scout said, flat out. Could of that scout been from the Cubs? With a win tonight, Mets would be out of first by a game, but no one really thinks the Mets sweep the Marlins and the Phillies will lose two of three to the Nationals.

Bottom 9th - Mets trying for the win! And with Kevin Hart (he of the near 7 ERA) on the mound, the Mets should win! Hart has allowed 59 base runners this season…IN ONLY 25 INNINGS. For the sabermetric guys out there, that is a WHIP of 2.360!!!

Predictably, Reyes singles on a 3-2 count and up comes Murphy. Why is Manuel having Murphy bunt? If I know about Hart’s numbers, then Manuel must know about Hart’s numbers. Right? Hart gives up a lot of hits and walks, Murphy is a HITTER and should be given the chance to hit.

And now with two strikes, Murphy bunts for a strikeout. After Murphy seemingly missed a sign earlier in the at bat, why didn’t anybody talk with Murphy?

I hope someone asks Jerry about this during the post game press conference.

Game winning hit by Beltran off the glove of Hoffpauir at first base. Weird game for Hoffpauir as he was 5 for 5 tonight with two HR’s, but made and error in the first and couldn’t glove either Church’s 2 RBI double down the line in the 3rd or Beltran’s game winning hit in the 9th.

And now Pedro can retire with a 214-99 record and not have triple digit losses for his career. Martinez has been thru a lot this year with several injuries and the death of his father.

Best maybe to ride off into the sunset, Pedro. You deserve it after a great career.

 

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