The St. Regis Monarch beach resort in Dana Point, CA, is hosting the winter baseball General Manager meetings. This is the same resort which housed the AIG insurance executives in September a week AFTER the insurance company was bailed out by the Federal government.

It is ironic that this same resort is the location for the GM meetings; the beginning point of what many people feel could be the bail out of GM Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees.

After last off-season, where Cashman eschewed the availability of Johan Santana, instead keeping his younger pitchers for the 2008 season. That did not work out too well for Cashman and the Yankees, who failed to make the postseason for the first time in 13 years.

It was reported today that Cashman is going to go after not one, but two, high-priced free agent pitchers. Cashman told a group of writers Monday, ""We're not going to be one and done. We need multiple starters.''

It appears that the Yankees are going to take full advantage of the $88 million coming of the books from expiring contracts. It's a good time if you can be a baseball free agent.

So, the chase is on for CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett (and pretty much every able bodied starting pitcher with initials in his name), probably Derek Lowe and maybe Mets head case Oliver Perez. Reports also have the Yankees pursuing first baseman Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez. Even Orlando Hudson, will known good clubhouse guy and gold glove second baseman also has the Yankees interested...to make Hudson a center fielder! Now, I know the Tampa Bay Rays hit gold when they transferred former second baseman BJ Upton to play CF, but Upton is 10 years younger than Hudson and has not had recent injuries to his legs. (Hudson missed much of last year with hamstring issues).

But, the Yankees don't need a center fielder (they have Brett Gardner ready to play), but do need top starting pitchers. Sabathia's people have met with Yankee brass, and although specific number can not be discussed, general parameters are probably out in the open. Burnett just opted out of his current contract and is being courted by at least 5 teams including the Yankees and Red Sox. Cashman would rather sign free agent pitchers (only costing Steinbrenner dollars)

Cashman has indicated he won't stop at just starting pitchers and that is where Ramirez and Teixeira come into play. With yesterday's buying out of the Jason Giambi (as well as Carl Pavano's) contract, the Yankees have likely said good bye to the Giambi era, one made up of steroid accusations, admissions and sub-par play on the field. In Giambi's seven years in pinstripes, the Yankees did not win a World Series, were one playoff series and out four times and then 2008 happened. And to further complicate that signing, the Yankees lost that first round draft pick in 2002, which could have landed them either Joe Blanton or Matt Cain. Pavano was even a worse free agent signing, only starting 26 games in his four seasons, mounting a 9-8 record in only 146 innings.

And I thought innings limits were only for Joba Chamberlain!

Giambi and Pavano were two of the Yankee busts as free agents, and you could include Gary Sheffield and Jose Contreras in that group. Only Hideki Matsui and Mike Mussina have been successful free agent acquisitions, but the Yankees still did not win a World Series title with those players.

After all those failures in the free agent market, the Yankees are seriously considering going that route again to "improve" their team.

The big question is: How do you quantify the success of a free agent signing? Is it when the player puts up great numbers or is it when that player helps improve the team to win championships?

Free agency really started to grow prior to the 1975 season when Catfish Hunter became a free agent from the Oakland A's and signed with the Yankees. Imagine that - Oakland not being able to afford their own big name free agent and letting them sign with the big market Yankees. I guess some things never change.

That signing was great for the Yankees as Hunter went 23-14 that season and the following year helped the Yankees win their first division title in 12 years. That was good signing because it helped the team advance further than they already had. The following season saw the Yankees sign Reggie Jackson, and he pushed the Yankees over the top, winning back to back World Series titles in 1977 and 1978. That was another good free agent signing.

There have only been a few other instances that a free agent player has helped a team improve enough that the new team was better the following year or two.

The Atlanta Braves scored twice with big free agent acquisitions, first when they signed Terry Pendleton in 1990 and then when they signed Greg Maddux two years later. It was a similar one-two punch the Yankees pulled with Hunter and Jackson. The Braves were a last place team when Pendleton signed, and the Braves proceeded to win 29 more games his first year and won the NL East title. That signing started the Braves on their great divisional title run, but they did not get "over the hump" again until Maddux signed in 1992 and the Braves then won the World Series.

The signings were great because they helped the Braves improve to win a division title and then win a World Series title. While the Mussina signing can be considered good because he stayed healthy, won a lot of games for the Yankees and they made the playoffs most years, it was not a great success because the Yankees were already a playoff team, but Mussina did not help them win a World Series.

The fifth example is when Detroit signed Kenny Rogers prior to the 2005 season. This signing, combined with previous years signings of Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez, helped the so-so Tigers improve enough to win the AL Championship in 2006. Rogers and Pudge helped a young starting rotation, but it can also be argued that the drafted and developed emergence of Justin Verlander helped that staff (and team) even more.

If the Yankees sign CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett (or Derek Lowe), will those signing prove to be successful?

Research has shown that 22 free-agent starting pitchers have signed a long-term deal (four plus years) since 2000. Only half of them have had winning records so far. Of the 79 seasons by those pitchers in that time, in only 31 has the pitcher had an ERA+ of 100 or better. That means almost two-thirds of the time those pitchers have been below-average.

Most fans know about the busts of Mike Hampton, Carl Pavano and Barry Zito, but there has also been Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Kei Igawa, Jarrod Washburn, Denny Neagle, Carlos Silva, Russ Ortiz and Derek Lowe, who despite a strong last two months of 2008, had been very mediocre for the Dodgers over his 4 year deal. Cynics will point out that most of those guys aren't in Sabathia or Burnett's league, but, at the time of their free agency, most, if not all, were top pitchers in the game.

The history of major free agent signings has not helped many teams win championships. And the process for free agent pitchers is even worse than position players. The odds that any free agent will pitch well over the length of a long-term contract, or even close to the length of the deal, aren't very good. And the recent success of teams who have reached the World Series such as the Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, etc have been achieved with home grown pitchers (and a few trades), but never with big-money free agent pitchers.

So, when Brian Cashman is looking across the table at Sabathia, Burnett's, Lowe's (and even Teixeira's) agents, he should know that the big contract is not a barometer for success, let alone winning a World Series championship.