If CC Sabathia signs elsewhere, Yankees have no one to blame but themselves

Recent reports suggest that the Anaheim Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and even the San Francisco Giants are now in the hunt for highly coveted free agent pitcher CC Sabathia, with the Angels being the most likely to offer a big enough deal. There is speculation, however, that the Angels are making overtures towards Sabathia to get their own free agent Mark Teixeira to take less money, fewer years or just make a quicker decision. Teixeira is seeking upwards of a 10 year deal for $200 million. A good days pay if you can get it.

But, while Teixeira and his uber agent, Scott Boras, have typically delayed their decision on the Angels, the Halos feel that if Tex signs elsewhere, their path to another American League West title starts 60 feet 6 inches away from home plate. The Angles will then concentrate what has made them a constant in the perennial playoff chase - quality starting pitching. The Angels have had more and better pitching than any other team in the AL, and is the big reason why they have four divisional titles, one World Series Championship and five 90 win seasons since Mike Scioscia took over as Angels manager 9 years ago.

Yes, the Angels will be able to make it work and could win another divisional title with Sabathia and without Teixeira.

By why hasn’t the main protagonist in this Sabathia drama, the New York Yankees, already locked up the big pitcher as their top of the rotation starter? Early reports as far back as during the 2008 playoffs had the Yankees zeroing in on Sabathia as their #1 priority. SI.com’s Jon Heyman wrote a piece on the Yankees and Sabathia on October 5th. Knowing Sabathia had a preference for the National League (where he can hit) and/or the West Coast (where he is from), the Yankees were supposed to overpay for Sabathia to keep him away form those temptations. The Yankees money will talk and talk loudly! The Yankees should have…but they didn’t.

The general consensus was that the Yankees were severely upset the way their youth movement experiment developed last season. In 2008, youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy had miserable, injury plagues seasons, and the Yankees could not overcome other problems with their starting pitching, and finished a disappointing third in the AL East. Their theory changed from youthful exuberance to finding an elite starting staff with big free agent acquisitions, headlined by Sabathia. The Yankees would blow away all other teams with their deep financial resources, with at least $88 million saved from expired contracts and a new cash cow Yankee Stadium, they had even more financial muscle entering 2009. Heyman even wrote that the Yankees offer “would blow away” all other teams and the Yankees would likely exceed the 6 year, $137.5 million deal the New York Mets gave Johan Santana last winter. The small, exclusive window that Sabathia’s current team, the Milwaukee Brewers, had concluded with the Brewers offering CC a 5 year, $100 million contract, formidable by Milwaukee standards. But, it pales in comparison to what the Yankees could afford.

But, something happened on the way to a Sabathia to the Yankees deal. The Yankees offered Sabathia a 6 year, $140 million contract, topping the Brewers offer, but barely surpassing Santana’s deal. While $140 million is a ton of guaranteed cash, and “blew away” Milwaukee’s offer, Sabathia did not jump - and this let other teams back in even the picture when most baseball people thought Sabathia to the Yankees was a foregone conclusion.

The Yankees front office made the mistake of thinking that all they had to do was top Milwaukee’s offer, and give CC a little more than Santana received, but the Yankees were not competing with Milwaukee for Sabathia. Nobody really thinks Sabathia would re-sign with Milwaukee. The Brewers’ offer was a saving face contract showing the Brewer faithful they wanted CC back, but the money would never work. Milwaukee traded for Sabathia last year to “go for it,” and while I commend them for that risk, they failed in their goal of the World Series and now must think of rebuilding their starting staff once again.

No, the Yankees were competing with the Boston Red Sox, both LA area teams and any other team with semi-deep pockets willing to take a risk - even a team like the Texas Rangers or San Francisco Giants. And the Yankees were competing against the Santana contract, which they needed to dominate, not just beat. After his performance down the stretch for the Brewers, pitching them into the playoffs with the last several clutch performances on three days rest, Sabathia needed to see much more than Santana’s deal. Santana did his best in August and September, but the Brewers beat out the Mets for the NL Wild Card. That deserved much more than Santana money, and by not blowing away the real competition away with a mega deal, the Yankees let the other teams back in the game.

It is similar to a poker game of Texas Hold ‘Em. You are sitting with a King - Queen in your hand and the flop comes up K - 8 - 4. You have top pair on the board and know it is the best hand. You don’t want to let the little guys play anymore (maybe they paired the 8 or 4) with the possibility of coming up with a three of a kind on the Turn card or the River. So, when it is time to bet, you “blow them away” with a hefty raise to eliminate their doubt that you have a King and the best hand. The little guys won’t take that risk of staying in the hand.

With the $140 million 6 year offer, the Yankees let the “little guys” back in, and it appears that a few of the teams now have a shot for that three of a kind. And to make it a little worse, new managing partner, Hal Steinbrenner, said the offer won’t be there forever, an insinuation that the Yankees could pull the offer at any time. This would only result if the Yankees feel that one of the other free agent pitchers, Burnett or Lowe, are going to sign with another team, and the Yankees will then bombard those two pitchers with larger offers. The Yankees do not want to go three strikes and you’re out - losing out on all three top free agent pitchers.

The Yankees have let the other teams back in and when the Angels or Red Sox or even the Dodgers make an offer to Sabathia, similar in money to New York’s, the Yankees will need to up the ante at another year on the contract and probaly more per season. The Yankee offer might end up for 7 years, $175 million - an average of $25 million per year.

And that is what the Yankees should have started with, just to keep the little guys away. If Sabathia decides to take another teams similar offer, and the Yanks lose out, they would have no one to blame but themselves.

 

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