Nothing brings out long discussions like why certain players should be in the Hall of Fame and why others shouldn’t. I wrote a piece the other day about Tim Raines, and I mentioned during our internal ballot at NYBD, I voted for Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice and Jack Morris. A reader posted a comment and asked me why I think Jack Morris is a Hall of Famer but not Bert Blyleven. 

Too many people are so wrapped up in statistics, especially the new stats that seem to spew out of every sabermetric bloggers mouth. Those bloggers are guys who mostly never played the game at any decent level above Little League, but they know the OPS+ of every guy not in the HOF but should be based on WARP 3.

If you are looking for sabermetric statistical evidence for my HOF thoughts, you are not going to get it. I have much disdain for the VORP and WARP stat heads who attempt to play the game of baseball in a computer when the game is actually played on the field.

The only WIN SHARE that matters is the game that is won on the field. Stats don’t win games, baseball players win games.

The game is played not to attain statistics, but to win games and championships. Therefore, wins and winning percentage for a pitcher are more important to me than ERA or WHIP or RSAA. Saving runs against average pits you against all other pitchers in the league, but DURING THAT GAME you are currently in, only winning that game matters.

WIN GAMES, NOT ERA or RSAA TITLES.

When a pitcher plays for a good period of time and wins a lot of games, he is on the radar for the HOF. Twenty win seasons and consistent Cy Young votes during his career are also important. Both Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven fall into that category.

What is also important to voters is what a player does to get his team into the post season, and how he performs. Not all players get to play in the post season, but in the voters eyes, it adds to the players aura and mystique. Reggie Jackson is a perfect example, as is Catfish Hunter. Great post season numbers could be the deciding factor in Curt Schilling’s chance for induction.

But, a player who played in the modern era also needs to dominate the era he plays in, and then compare favorably to other post World War II pitchers in the games history.

If he dominates his era first, then if he compares favorably to many of the games greats, then he is a no-brainer for the Hall.

Jack Morris was the best pitcher of his era, won 20 games three times and had seven top ten finishes in the Cy Young voting.

Bert Blyleven wasn’t close to the best pitcher of his era, won 20 games once and had four top ten CYA finishes.

Most HOF pitchers have 10 to 12 good years, then have several years when they are older they hang on and double digit win seasons. Basically, the win padding years. Very few modern pitchers are of the Maddux, Clemens, Randy Johnson mold when they consistently put up 15-20 wins for 15 plus years.

So, I like to take a ten year period for winning pitchers, and see how they stack up against the competition.

Morris’ best 10 year period was from 1979 thru 1988, when he went 173-112. This averages basically a 17-11 season. That type season makes a pitcher $20 million in today’s games. After that 10 year period, Morris had an injury-plagued off year, and then won 15, 18 and 21 games during the next three seasons, averaging an 18-12 record. 

One thing I like about baseball-reference.com is they break down a player’s stats into an average 162 game season. Morris’ 162 game record is 16-11, slightly below his ten best year period. This average also compares very favorably with top pitchers Bob Feller (17-10), Juan Marichal (17-10), Tom Seaver (16-10), Greg Maddux (16-10) and Catfish Hunter (15-11).  

By the way, the best modern 162 game career record belongs to Whitey Ford with a 17-7 full season mark.

Morris also dominates the records of all the top pitchers of the 1980’s such as Frank Viola, Bret Saberhagen, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser and even Dave Stieb, Fernando Valenzuela and Dave Stewart.

He was also the ace on three World Series winners, and although he got rocked during the 1992 Series, he was 4-0 in his five starts in the 1984 and 1991 World Series.

And, of course, he pitched the second best World Series game in history, beating John Smoltz 1-0 in 10 innings during Game 7 of the 1991 Series. That game likely gets Morris many votes. My big recollection from that game is Tom Kelly was going to take out Morris after 9 complete, and Jack telling him to, “Go down to the other end of the @^#*%@&  bench, this is my game,” and Kelly went back to the other end of the  bench.

Bert Blyleven was a really good pitcher who is the perfect example of how a young pitcher can go nine innings per game and 250+ innings per season. Blyleven came up at age 19 and during a six year period from ages 20 thru 25, he AVERAGED 291 innings per year.

I reference Blyleven all the time when the pitch count and innings limit dummies begin their rants.

But, although he was good, he did not dominate his era the way other pitchers did. What really hurt Blyleven was constantly wearing out his welcome with franchises, and then demanding trades. Except for the Pittsburgh Pirates, he was always traded to bad teams. He pitched well during his two post season appearances, but did not have a signature moment the way Morris did.

Blyleven’s 10 year best was from 1971 thru 1980 when he went 146-132. His 162 game record is a pedestrian 14-12. A plus is that he did have four more 17+ win seasons late in his career, including 19-7, 2.87 in 1984. Those later years basically put Blyleven into the Hall discussions, because his overall numbers were higher.

I know he won more games, struck out more people and had a better ERA than Morris, but he wasn’t dominating and was never considered one of the best of his generation. I put a lot of stock in the dominating aspect of a generation, which is why Koufax is in, Putting up a lot of numbers over a longer period of time doesn’t garner my vote, but it obviously does get votes from other guys.

I also want to add that while Blyleven started his Major League career at 19, Morris did not get to start in the majors until age 24, when the Tigers started their youth movement. Blyleven was drafted out of high school, while Morris went to Brigham Young. If a pitcher is worried about putting up HOF numbers, I suggest he sign a contract out of high school.

Many people feel that a pitchers ERA, RSAA and WHIP, etc. are great indicators of a pitchers performance. They do help a team win games, but are just really good fantasy baseball statistics. Morris’ career ERA was 3.90, and he still won 254 games, and had a 21 win season with an ERA just over 4.00. I know he pitched with really good offensive teams, but it is a team game, and the idea is to WIN THE GAME!

There was an interview with Morris a while back where he said that many times with a big lead late in a game; he just threw the ball over the plate to get guys to swing the bat. Sometimes you give up runs that way, but your team still wins the game.

Morris was dominating over a period of time, and was the winningest pitcher of the 1980’s. He was the ace of three World Series winning teams, won 254 games and pitched the most pressure packed Game 7 in World Series history.  

I wouldn’t vote Blyleven into the Hall, but a lot of other voters will. He ended up at 62.7% of the vote this year and during the next three years, some good players will be eligible for the first time, but not really any lock-down, first ballot guys. Unless you think Roberto Alomar is a first ballot guy.  

That helped Jim Rice get more votes in 2000, and will help Blyleven (and Morris) the next couple years. Expect Rik Albert Blyleven to get a big bump in 2009, and probably getting that needed 75%.

Then the sabermetricians can focus all their pent up baseball knowledge in pushing for Alan Trammell.

The thing is that Blyleven WILL eventually get in, but Morris likely won't. I guess that is why they have the Veterans Committee.