The Media Has Tom Glavine's Back On This One!

Headline in the Macon Telegraph today read, "Bullpen Waste's Glavine's Night." Even Glavine's manager Bobby Cox stated, "Typical Tommy. He was good. We should have won that one." 

Attention Atlanta Braves fans! Please do not blame last night's game on the bullpen! It is completely on the shoulders - well, at least the arm - of Tom Glavine. As a New York area resident, I have seen this type of debacle numerous times during Glavine's five year stay for the New York Mets.

Glavine goes his customary 5+ innings, sometimes leaves with a lead and then ends up with a no decision and his team loses. Over the course of the season the bullpen gets worn down because Glavine rarely throws more than 5/6 innings anymore. During last season Glavine average slightly less than 6 innings per start. There were even times last season when Glavine did go 7 innings and the Mets bullpen blew the game. I know it was the first start of the season, but recent history shows Glavine does not go deep into games - and it costs his teams victories.

Last season Glavine lasted 7+ innings only 10 times in his 33 starts, but, more importantly, Glavine did not last even 6 innings on 8 starts. The bullpen has to work 3+ innings in 25% of Glavine's starts. And it was exactly the same in 2006. That not only puts pressure on the bullpen in Glavine's start, but also put pressure on other starters and Willie Randolph, who then has to make tough pitching decisions a day earlier and day after Glavine's starts. Did an early exit by Glavine a day earlier cost Willie his entire bullpen? If Glavine is your next day's starter, was Willie getting the 7+ Glavine or the early shower Glavine that next day? Knowing Glavine will not go deep into a game dictates how a manager uses his pitchers on other days, too! I bet Willie is glad he does not have to worry about that situation anymore!

As a starter, why let the bullpens ruin your games? Where is it written that the bullpen has to pitch in every game on the schedule? Glavine faced 855 batters last season, the second straight season he faced considerably less than 900.

Since Glavine appears to have a predetermined pitch count on himself, he needs to work ahead in the count and be more economical with his pitches. During last night's game, he was behind on all but 5 of the 22 batters he faced, and threw 97 pitches, averaging 4.4 pitches per batter.

Completely unacceptable for any pitcher, let alone a veteran making $8 million!

As a comparison, Livan Hernandez went 7 innings last night, throwing only 84 pitches, an average of 3.2 pitches per the 26 batters he faced. Livan could have probably thrown a complete game, but Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan, guaranteed guys in the pen.  As we saw last season with the Mets and thus far in 2008 with the Braves, Glavine's teams do not have the same high-quality bullpens. This ended up costing the Mets a playoff spot last season and has already cost the Braves a game this year.

Also, Hernandez will give the Twins young pitchers a chance to build up their innings. In fact, Livan is one of four pitchers who have thrown 200 innings and started 30+ games during the last 7 seasons. The others are Greg Maddux, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez. Glavine almost made that club, but has tailed off in recent years and cannot be counted on to give his teams that type of production. It has been shown to cost his team much needed victories.

Glavine does not have the stuff anymore to strikeout batters, nor or hitters in awe of the onetime great. Therefore, Glavine nibbles more, throwing more and more pitches, especially his batting practice fastball way off the outside corner. He will not get those calls from the umpires anymore. Last I saw the large strike zones of the Eric Gregg era are long gone. Glavine needs to be more effective by becoming more aggressive early in the count.

There are some games where Tom Glavine will get pounded. Just look at his last two starts in the 2007 season for the Mets. The instances where Glavine is getting hit hard early is where the Braves' bullpen will need a full day's work. They do not need to get called in repeatedly when Glavine can only go five innings because he reached his self-allotted pitch count for the day.

If that is what Glavine will give you game after game, then the Braves' signing of the 42 year old was a big mistake. On top of the worn out bullpen and a projected mediocre 12-10 season for the free agent signed Glavine, remember that the Braves' first round pick this year goes to the Mets.  And the Mets get a supplemental first rounder, too.

The Twins signing of Livan Hernandez appears much better, and if the Twins are out of the race mid-season and Livan is pitching well, the Twins can trade him to a contender for prospects. And the Twins did not have to give up a 2008 first round pick in signing Hernandez.

Does Glavine have a confidence problem and now limits his pitches per game? Is that why he continually tries to nibble? Glavine needs to go deeper in games to give his team a chance at winning. Work more effectively early in the count by pounding the strike zone. He must work to contact and let his fielders do the work, or is he afraid of getting hit hard because his stuff not that good anymore?

But, last night it was all the bullpens fault.

 

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